SHI Silver trend signal

The indicator plots red dots and blue dots for sell and buy signals. Of course, if it was simply like that, then we would be all rich. But, the indicator changes color and position. So it may be of some help or confirmation to your already existing forex system, but you can not reply on it alone. All the indicators in this blog can be downloaded here http://www.divshare.com/download/170344-ddc

Support and Resistance (Barry)

Support and Resistance (Barry)



The indicator plots the support and resistance levels.

ZigZag indiactor with fibo retracement

The indicator uses the zigzag indicator and adds to it the fibo retracement numbers automatically. It is very useful in trending markets to identify whether the price is retracing or the trend is reversing. The above chart is for GBP/USD daily candles, and you can click on the above image to see the original chart size.

Wolfe waves indicator

Copied from http://www.chart.nu/wolfewave.htm website


"I was introduced to this setup back when Linda Raschke mentioned the pattern in a market call. Being the ever curious one, I found some additional references and examples in her book StreetSmarts, saying that "this particular methodology is perhaps the most unique, effective trading technique I've (Linda) ever came across! It was developed and shared by a good friend, Bill Wolfe, who for the last 10 years has made a living trading the S&P." The next jump lead to http://wolfewave.com/, an excellent source of information which was read, absorbed, and served as inspiration for use in the real world markets. Being very interested in reversal sequences, this approach appeals very much to my risk profile and trading style based on chart patterns (classic Edwards and Magee).

The key to recognizing the setup is symmetry. Ideally, waves 1-3-5 are established with very regular timing intervals between moves. The other key ingredient is that the wave 4 should revisit the price range established by waves 1-2 for the best results. Another way to describe the pattern is that it comes as a rising wedge / channel in an uptrend, or falling wedge / channel in a downtrend. Wave 5 is often a false breakout move beyond the bounds of the pattern. Unlike either bull or bear flags, the movement is in the same direction as the overall trend, with the overlapping waves giving signals that an impending reversal is taking shape. This pattern has different names, depending on the source - Larry Pesavento describes the pattern as "3 pushes to a top/bottom" and uses Fibonacci relationships to confirm the setup (waves 3 and 5 are 127% or 162% extensions of the previous pullback.) Jeff Cooper uses "Cooper 1-2-3 swing" nomenclature, and Linda Raschke likes to call this setup "3 indians". The unique quality about wolfewaves, however, is the objective target projection from waves 1 -> 4.

Despite the great explanation and examples provided on Bill Wolfe's site, I continue to get questions about how much I trust this setup. Very much so. The following are setups encountered over the years - most were called as wolfewaves right as the pattern was found, trade taken, and real money put to work to measure the risk and reward in real world cash. I hope these recent charts serve as inspiration for further study. Who needs bulls and bears when you can run with the wolfes?"

Weekly Pivot indicator

Weekly Pivot indicator



Weekly pivot indicator automatically calculates the pivot numbers for the weekly chart and plot it on any time frame. The chart above is for GBP/USD daily candles. The indicator may be useful for identifying strong resistance and support lines, or possible levels of retracement.

Fibonacci retracement indicator

Fibonacci retracement indicator



The indicator automatically plots the fibonacci levels on the chart. The image above is from a GBP/USD daily chart.

Ind-TD-DeMark Indicator

Ind-TD-DeMark

Tom DeMark developed this indicator. He discussed it in his book, “New Science of Technical Analysis,” and published articles in various trading journals. He has described the workings of the formula and how to trade it.

The indicator has a buy zone, a sell zone and a neutral zone. There are two entries that Mr. DeMark presents. (Text from http://www.efuturevision.com/emdem.php3)

Click on the images below to see the original size.

MACD DOTS By Phil McGrew

MACD DOTS By Phil McGrew pmcgrew@myacc.net



Hello dear reader. I want to take a few minutes of your time to explain a few things about the dots that may or may not be intuitive. They are:

• What is MACD and how is it developed?
• Why I think MACD is the best indicator around
• How the MACD dots were developed
• What other indictors should be considered
• How to trade the MACD dots as a system


I think very few of us can actually explain how MACD is developed. It is of utmost importance to understand your indicator. All have limitations and if you don’t know and appreciate them you’ll soon be looking for another indicator.



Figure 1

In figure 1 we begin to develop the MACD. It consists of a 12 period EMA (olive line) and a 26 EMA (purple line). The difference between those 2 lines is the “Fast Line” (yellow line). Now we have an oscillator. The only difference between this and other oscillators such as Stochastics, RSI, and others, is that they are normalized in a way that they are usually bounded by 0 on the bottom and 100 on the top. They “oscillate” between those two extremes. There are limitations to that type of oscillator which we will later. But, MACD isn’t done yet.


Figure 2

The “Fast Line” (yellow line) is smoothed again by a 9 period EMA to create a “Slow Line” (blue EMA). The difference between the Fast Line and the Slow Line is often plotted as a histogram (Green Plot). Smoothing the Fast Line and creating an additional moving average is why MACD is often referred to as an “oscillator of an oscillator”.

Personally, I think MACD is the best and most versatile indicator around. By observing MACD you can tell 4 things about price action:

• The trend of price action. By observing the relationship of the Fast Line and the Slow Line we can tell the direction of the market. If the Fast Line crosses above the Slow Line the trend is up. This is the premise of a moving average crossover system.
• Divergent situations. By comparing neighboring peaks and valleys of the histogram we can identify areas of regular and hidden divergence. If you do not understand divergence read this.
• Momentum. When the market makes a move the Fast Line and the Slow Line separate. The difference can be seen on the histogram. When this movement subsides the lines come back together and the histogram approaches zero. We can observe the histogram rolling over, or rolling up, towards zero. This is an indication that momentum is drying up.
• Market noise. If the market is going sideways there will be no separation between the Fast Line and the Slow Line. The histogram will necessarily be very close to 0. This is a good time to stay out of the market or look for opportunity when price breaks out of the existing range.

I started this system by trying to develop an indicator that would alert me to MACD crossovers. This is the Fast Line crossing the Slow Line or vice versa. I found that, in many cases, the move was over or well under way when the crossover occurred. I wanted a way to anticipate the crossover. When momentum stalls, the histogram ceases to continue in a given direction. I thought if I could identify turns in the histogram, I could enter the market earlier than if I waited for an actual crossover of the lines.




Figure 3

In figure 3 I colored the histogram green when rising and red when falling. For me, this makes it more visually apparent which way momentum might be heading. I included red arrows to show where momentum has peaked. The blue arrows show that downward pressure is slowing and that a reversal is possible. On the figures to follow, the charts will have yellow dots above price to indicate a sell signal and blue dots under price to indicate buy signals. They will approximately agree with the red and blue arrows I used in Figure 3.

There are only two problems left to solve:
• What if the market isn’t moving?
• How do I reduce false signals?




Figure 4

Figure 4 shows how both of these problems are addressed in the code. In the first third of the chart and the last third of the chart no signals are given (no yellow or blue dots). Sideways market movement is filtered out by requiring that the MACD histogram be above or below a certain height before any further calculations are permitted. The horizontal lines show the value above or below that is necessary to register a signal.

The lower vertical line shows the first occurrence of the histogram beginning to fall. The upper vertical line shows the price at which the actual sell signal was generated. The code records the height of the histogram. When the value of the histogram begins to fall it must exceed a preset differential before a signal is given. This prevents a signal from occurring too early or a spurious bar from generating a signal.

Figure 5 represents a typical chart setup for me.




Figure 5

The yellow dots are sell signals, the blue ones are buy signals. The blue moving average is the 15 min 62 period EMA (this is a 15 min chart) and the white dashed line is the 62 period EMA from a 1 hour chart. I use a time of 4 times higher than the chart I am looking at to get a sense of the overall trend. It is very important to know if you are trading with or against the trend. Money can be made in either direction, but when going with the trend the probability of success is greatly improved.

The bottom indicator is an oscillator. I use one called RSX but any oscillator that is capable of giving overbought or oversold indications will work well. If a buy signal is generated concurrent with an oversold condition, or a sell signal is concurrent with an overbought condition, the odds are again improved. One last discretionary pattern that I suggest using are candle patterns. As price nears an extreme, the candles should become smaller and reversal candles should begin to show up. These are doji, hanging men, hammers, inverted hammers, shooting stars, and spinning tops.




At this point it’s not much of a mystery how these dots can be traded as a system. There are additional indications that can be used to increase the odds of success. These are:

• Trading concurrently with an overbought or oversold condition
• Trading with the prevailing trend
• Looking for reversal type candle patterns
• Looking for obvious levels of support and resistance where a reversal is likely to occur
• Looking for divergence and hidden divergence. There is an example of this directly in the middle of figure 5.
• Waiting for the signal candle (the one with the dot) to be exceeded prior to taking a trade. Sometimes this can keep you out of a lousy trade. If you are only looking for a quick profit, waiting may not be prudent since several points could be a large percentage of the gain you are looking for. But, if you are looking for larger gains waiting to see that the trend has indeed reversed can often be helpful.

My trading partners and I have recently experimented with scaling into these positions. It is foolish to think that any of us can pick the exact top or bottom of any reversal. If price improves in a way that you can add additional positions (or goes against you if you are a pessimist) and improve your effective entry price, then it might be a good idea to do so.

I have several people to thank for helping me with this concept. My girlfriend Sherry who suggested no less than 50 grammatical “improvements” in this paper (even though it is mostly charts) and forgives me when I occasionally trade too much and forget to shower. My friend Holden who actually knows how to write code and converts ideas into strange languages that my computer will understand. And my trading partners and dear friends Rob and Max who have helped develop this idea into a profitable system.

The code is written in EasyLanguage which is proprietary to TradeStation. The code is available for free upon request. If there are questions, comments, or improvements to this system I can be reached at pmcgrew@myacc.net.

Also, this code will implemented into Xtick from version 3.24.3

The 4 Hour Momentum Tuneel Method

THE 4 HOUR MOMENTUM TUNNEL METHOD


Step 1.

• Create a weekly chart [bar or candle] of a currency pair.
• On this chart overlay a 21 EMA [(H + L)/2], and a 5 SMA [(H + L)/2].
• Note that the 21 period is an exponential moving average and the 5 period is a simple moving average.
  
• Now, look at the difference between the two. As a market rises over time on the weekly chart, the 5 will rise faster relative to the 21.
  
• As the market goes down, the 5 will lose faster relative to the 21.
  
• The difference, in pips between the two, measures relative momentum of the market in real time.
  
• Each week, as long as the number of pips keeps rising [SMA 5 - EMA 21] from the previous week, the market continues in a bull run.
• Once a bull run loses pips [SMA 5 - EMA 21] from the previous week, it signals a medium-term top in the market.
  
• Conversely, once a bear run loses pips [EMA 21 - SMA 5] from the previous week, it signals a medium-term bottom in the market.
• This now gives us [with only one week lag] a positive probabilistic model in determining which side [long or short] to initiate trades in a defined time period. We are identifying market momentum.
  

Step 2.

• Create a 4 hour chart [bar or candle] of the same currency pair. On this chart overlay a 55 SMA [(H + L)/2], and an 8 SMA [Close only].
• Now, look at the difference between the two on your 4 hour chart. Since we are using different types of MA’s and a shorter time period with a relatively longer period, the two will cross many times.
• We call these MOMENTUM tunnels.
  
• So, we now take a look at the weekly chart again and determine that we are in a bull run. We then take a look at the 4 hour chart.
  
• We now know that we are looking to long the market, and that short positions will not be taken because they have been predetermined to be low probability events for large profits.
  
• We now are looking for the 8 SMA to move lower through the 55 SMA.
  
• When it does, we carefully watch and notice when the SLOPE of the 8 SMA changes from negative to positive.
  
• It will do this when the 8 SMA stops losing value in one 4 hour bar and gains in the next.
• This is the 4 hour bar to initiate new long positions with 3 units [remember: units are whatever trading size you can handle.
• When you trade bigger, just adjust the size of the unit, not the number of units]. Stops can be placed using technicals [support/res/trendline] of the most recent 4 hour bars.
  
• Assuming the market starts to go up, we stay long until
• 1) at some point in time the 8 SMA changes slope from positive to negative, at which point we exit the entire 3 unit trade,
  
• 2) the market moves up, there is no slope change, and goes to the 144 or 233 fib number from the 55 SMA line, where 1 unit is taken off,
• 3) the market moves up to the next fib number [233 or 377], again with no slope change, and the 2nd unit is booked.
• Let’s now assume that the weekly chart determines we are in a bear run. We will now be looking to initiate new short positions only.
  
• We are looking for the 8 SMA to move higher through the 55 SMA.
  
• When it does, we carefully watch and notice when the SLOPE of the 8 SMA changes from positive to negative.
  
• It will do this when the 8 SMA stops gaining value in one 4 hour bar and loses in the next. This is the 4 hour bar to initiate new short positions with 3 units.
  
• Again, stop placement depends on technicals of the most recent 4 hour bars.
  
• Assuming the market starts to go down, we stay short until
• 1) at some point in time the 8 SMA changes slope from negative to positive, at which point we exit the entire 3 unit trade,
  
• 2) the market moves down, there is no slope change, and goes to the 144 or 233 fib number from the 55 SMA line, where 1 unit is taken off,
  
• 3) the market moves down to the next fib number [233 or 377], again with no slope change, and the 2nd unit is booked.
  
• There will be times when the slopes will change and the 8 SMA will not be above/below the 55 SMA line. In these circumstances we use only 1 ½ units to initiate a trade with the same rules above.
  
• We are implementing this new 4 hour method with only 2 filters.
• The first is on the weekly chart.
  
• If the difference between the 21 EMA and the 5 EMA is > 500 pips, then the pip difference from the prior week must change by more than 10 pips, or just go lower over 2 consecutive weeks, to signal a trend change.
  
• The second filter is on the 4 hour chart. If the 8 SMA and the 55 SMA and the market price are all within 50 pips or so of each other, we go to technicals [breakout] to continue the trade.
• We do this because, at this juncture, you are more likely to get the 8 SMA jumping up and down 2 or 3 pips every few bars, thus generating a false trade signal.
• It doesn’t happen very often, but when it does, using this filter can save us money, and the market isn’t really moving anywhere anyway.
  
• Therefore, a breakout of the techs makes sense to initiate a trade, if it’s in the direction you are supposed to be trading.
  
• If you now go ahead and make the charts and take a cursory look at the weekly, you should be amazed.
  
• The weekly criteria hits every single turn in the market within a couple of weeks.
  
• The fact of the matter is that the weekly difference of the MA’s TRENDS.
  
• It doesn’t change gaining/losing unless the trend changes.
• The 4 hour chart is equally powerful.
  
• A more careful look at the 4 hour will show large 4 hour bar spikes that often change the slope of the 8 SMA.
  
• The reason we chose the 8 SMA with close only, is so that we can better estimate in the next 4 hour bar period the price needed to change the slope before the period is over.
• Many times this will give us a huge profit advantage over waiting until the period is over.
  
  

The Vegas Tunnel 1 HR Method

The Vegas Tunnel Method:

Step 1.

• Create a 1 hour chart on whatever currency pairs interest you. Barcharts or candlesticks really make no difference. Overlay on this 3 things: 1) a 169 period [1 hour] ema [exponential moving average], 2) a 144 period [1 hour] ema, and finally 3) a 12 period [1hour] ema.
  
• 
  
• The 144 and 169 ema's create what I call the "tunnel". The 12 ema is an extremely valuable filter that you will want to have there all the time. I will talk more about this in the filter section.
  

Step 2.

• Memorize or write down and keep next to your trading screen the following fibonacci number sequence: 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,377. For trading purposes, the numbers of interest are 55, 89, 144, 233, and 377.
  

Step 3.

• Wait for the market to come into the area of the "tunnel". When it breaks ABOVE the upper tunnel boundary, you go long. When it breaks BELOW the lower tunnel boundary, you go short.
  

Step 4.

• Stops and reverse are placed on the other side of the tunnel.
  

Step 5.

• As the market trades in your direction, you take partial profits at the successive fib numbers respectively, with the final portion of your position left on until one of the following conditons occur: 1) market hits the last fib number [377 pips] from the ema's, or 2) the market eventually comes back to the tunnel and violates the other side.
  

Example:

GBP/USD is trading at 1.8500.

• The ema's are as follows: 144- 1.8494, 169- 1.8512.
  
• The market breaks 1.8494, and you sell at 1.8492.
  
• Your stop and reverse is now at 1.8512.
  
• Over the following hours, market starts to go down.
  
• 40 minutes after you put position on, cable is at 1.8440.
  
• You can use for computation purposes either tunnel boundary or the median of the tunnel.
  
• Ema's are still the same, so if you use the median, 55 from 1.8503 is 1.8448.
  
• You should have taken part of the position off at 1.8448.
  
• Market does nothing rest of day.
  
• Stop can be moved down to protect position or left alone at tunnel.
  
• You are now looking for price to be 89 pips away from the ema's.
  
• Since 55 was already passed, it no longer concerns us in this cycle.
  
• A couple of days later, cable is at 1.8300 and the median of ema's is 1.8410 [1.8400 - 1.8420]. You should be out of another portion of the position at 1.8321.
  
• Market bottoms here and in the next 2 hours, cable screams to 1.8535.
  
• Your remaining short position is covered at upper tunnel boundary of 1.8420, and you are now long from this point as well.
  
• Since you are long, you would now take partial profits at 1.8475 and 1.8509.
  

This is a fairly typical example.

If you were to just stick to this basic model, you account would grow very well over time. Las Vegas was built with far fewer percentages in the casino's favor.

Welcome

Hello and welcome everyone. This is my second blog. I decided to create this blog to share with you all the forex systems available in the internet. The blog will be a very useful resource for all the forex newbies, as well as an interesting resource for forex professionals. I hope I will be able to post all the forex systems that I can find. Special thanks to http://www.lightpatch.com/forex/ for his website where he is listing all these systems for download, as well as some indicators and expert advisers as well.